Friday, June 22, 2007

Cat Models on Parade

After a hiccup over its five-year hurricane forecasts, disaster
modeler RMS has finally won state approval of a computer program that
calculates the risk of storm damage. It is used by insurance companies
to set rates for windstorm coverage on homes.

The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology in
May rejected the initial controversial model produced by RMS, that
produced short-term loss estimates that reflected the current run of
hurricane activity. Bottom line: higher insurance rates.

Meeting again on Thursday, the commission gave its blessings to a
revised version of the RMS model that is based on more traditional
long-range storm forecasts.

A seal approval from the Florida commission carries great weight with
insurance regulators across the nation. But RMS is telling its clients
to use both models when evaluating hurricane risks, even though the
state-approved version is the only one that can be cited when turning in
rate hike requests to the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation.

That caused concern for some state commission members, who sought to
require RMS to be very explicit in its advertising and promotional
materials exactly which computer model had state blessing.

Meanwhile, a taxpayer-funded public model developed by Florida
International University is still undergoing scrutiny. The commission
voted Thursday to delay -- again -- a hearing on the FIU model. It now
is up for review in August.



Paul Flemming

Bill Cotterell

Jim Ash

Stephen Price

   
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