Buy this photo Phil Sears / Democrat Gov. Charlie Crist, right, and then-House Speaker Marco Rubio, here after the 2008 legislative session, are engaged in a close battle for an open U.S. Senate seat, and rumors are flying.

The rumors, informed (or not) speculation, blue-sky imaginings and carefully hedged predictions have begun, regarding Gov. Charlie Crist's political future.

Could Marco Rubio really run him out of the Republican U.S. Senate primary? If Crist's polls and political handlers say he'll lose on Aug. 24, would Crist file as an independent — skipping the primary and saving his cash (now $7.5 million on hand) for November, when his odds are better in a three-way race?

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Another Rubio-as-giant-killer scenario has Crist running for four more years as governor, with Attorney General Bill McCollum and Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp keeping their current jobs. Sayers of sooth see this as a way for Crist to reunite the Republican Party and, in 2012, maybe have Sen. Rubio's support in a race against Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat — leaving Kottkamp the Governor's Mansion and a two-year head start on keeping it.

But others will tell you McCollum and state Sen. Paula Dockery wouldn't go quietly back to their day jobs. When Crist was asked last week if he thought he could win the Senate seat as an independent, he said, "I have no idea, and we'll never find out."

Dropping back to re-election, or pulling a Joe Lieberman in the Senate race, would make Crist look weak and selfish. Going for governor again would make him the guy who chickened out against Rubio but still wanted the perks of power. Taking the independent route for the Senate would enrage Republicans who have supported him for nine years, and wouldn't attract any other voting bloc.

Democrats who aren't enthusiastic about Miami Congressman Kendrick Meek might see Crist as a moderate-conservative alternative — but an opportunist. And the no-party voters, especially those at tea party rallies, already like Rubio.

Rubio's problem is that he's still relatively unknown. Crist's problem is that he's awfully well-known. It's one thing to persuade undecideds, quite another to win people who know you and are looking elsewhere.

Fortunately, a radical restacking the starting gate is not likely.

One thing you can say about Florida politics is, it's predictable. Front-runners win, long shots lose and things stick pretty much to the script.

Well, except for 1970, when the U.S. Senate rejected Judge G. Harrold Carswell's appointment to the Supreme Court and then-Gov. Claude Kirk got him to run for the Senate. Congressman Bill Cramer was the GOP establishment choice that year, just as Crist is now, and he beat Carswell. But he lost the general to an obscure state senator, Lawton Chiles, who'd beaten an ex-governor — while an equally unknown Reubin Askew overtook an incumbent attorney general for the Democratic nomination and then beat Kirk.

And 1978 was just an anomaly, as an obscure state Sen. Bob Graham beat a two-term attorney general to succeed Askew. And 1980 was the exception that tests the rule, with a U.S. senator losing the Democratic primary to a Cabinet officer who then lost to a Republican.

And 1986 was just a fluke, when everybody knew Insurance Commissioner Bill Gunter and Attorney General Jim Smith would slug it out for governor. Except, they both dropped out. Smith dropped back in, joining Senate President Harry Johnston's ticket for lieutenant governor, but they wound up running against each other and cancelling each other out.

But surely we should have foreseen how Smith, losing a Democratic runoff, would become Republican Gov. Bob Martinez's co-chief of staff. Then, when Democrat George Firestone resigned — as, of course, everyone expected when they'd re-elected him a few months earlier — Smith was named secretary of state.

And, all right, maybe we shouldn't have been surprised when Chiles started running for re-election to the Senate in 1988, quit, so then Askew ran for a while and quit. Then-congressman Buddy MacKay lost the Senate race that year to Connie Mack but — of course! — Chiles and MacKay were back 15 months later, teaming up for governor and lieutenant governor.

Smith got Jeb Bush into a runoff for the GOP nomination for governor in 1994 and then dropped out, later becoming a stand-in nominee for agriculture commissioner. Having been attorney general as a Democrat and secretary of state as a Republican and losing bids for governor in both parties, he had to run for the ag job. I think that's in the constitution.

Jeb Bush led by wide margins in all the 1994 polls, so Chiles was re-elected, assuring us that "the he-coon walks just before the light of day," whatever that means. Meanwhile, a retired Marine general was recruited by the Republicans to run for comptroller, just to prevent incumbent Gerald Lewis from being unopposed; naturally, Bob Milligan beat the 20-year incumbent.

In 1998, then-Sectetary of Agriculture Bob Crawford remained a Democrat but endorsed Bush for governor and went on to take Bush's place on the elections canvassing commission that certified the 2000 presidential election.

A governor's brother elected president by 537 votes out of more than 6 million cast? There are states where that might be considered strange.

So don't listen to those people speculating about Charlie Crist running for governor again, taking the nonparty route to Washington or chucking the whole thing. What's so wonderful about Florida politics is, no surprises.